Patent predictions
Members of the Sisvel team identify some of the key developments of 2024 and look ahead to what may happen in 2025
With the new year in full swing, it’s time for some of the Sisvel team to identify developments that stood out for them in 2024 – and look into the crystal ball to see what might lie ahead for 2025.
From Wi-Fi 6 and other hot tech areas through more creative dealmaking to major legal developments in Europe, the US and China, the next 12 months seem set up to be big ones. While we do not know exactly what will happen, something we are very confident about is that Sisvel will be at the heart of it, powering innovation across the world.
Wi-Fi 6 looks hot
Last year began with our groundbreaking video coding deal with RPX for our Video Coding pool. Another major milestone was licensing almost the entire DVB-T2 market. This pool has all the hallmarks of a textbook programme in which all patent owners have come together and licensed basically everyone who uses their technology. Meanwhile, our Cellular IoT programme experienced meteoritic portfolio growth and now includes the majority of patents essential to LTE-M and NB-IoT. Here we have invested in guiding a less SEP-savvy industry through the basics of SEP licensing. There is more work to be done, but we expect that once they know what pitfalls to look for, the realisation will hit that the C-IoT pool’s proposition is exceptionally good. On the Wi-Fi 6 front, our pool started to gather serious momentum. It has been able to help resolve a couple of tense disputes via amicable pool deals and showed itself to be the reasonable option in the increasingly competitive Wi-Fi 6 market.
I am sure a lot will be going on at Sisvel and beyond during 2025 but as I sit here now one thing looks certain to happen. Last year was a very exciting one for our Wi-Fi 6 programme: we welcomed new licensors and did several important deals. We agreed an eye-catching one with Acer in the late summer, and we have just closed 2024 by ending a long-standing multi-jurisdictional dispute between Huawei and Netgear through a Wi-Fi 6 pool deal. What that tells me is that we are in a unique position to seize the opportunity to create something very special in the Wi-Fi space this year. We are going to take it.
David Muus, Head of Licensing Programmes
Shifting tides in the US
In 2024, the Federal Circuit's landmark Ericsson v Lenovo decision seemed to reshape anti-suit injunctions in SEP disputes in the United States. Reversing the district court, the Federal Circuit held that US courts could issue anti-suit injunctions when domestic FRAND determinations would effectively resolve parallel foreign disputes. The appellate court rejected the lower court's view that separate Colombian and Brazilian cases precluded an anti-suit injunction, reasoning that the FRAND determination at issue in the US case was foundational to Ericsson's ability to seek injunctive relief anywhere. The Federal Circuit remanded the case back to the lower court to proceed with the fulsome anti-suit injunction analysis. It remains to be seen whether this decision propels US courts back to the top in resolving global SEP disputes, as a domestic FRAND ruling could effectively preclude foreign injunctions. It is worth noting that this authority faces counterbalance from anti-anti-suit injunctions issued by the Unified Patent Court and Chinese courts in late 2024. Regardless, US courts still seem to require all parties’ consent to set global FRAND rates, maintaining limits on their jurisdictional reach.
Gazing into the crystal ball for 2025, the International Trade Commission’s late-2024 initial determination finding SEP violations in the Nokia v Amazon SEP dispute could herald a new era of ITC prominence. Should the exclusion order (i.e. important ban) survive commission and presidential review, it would mark a decisive victory for SEP holders such as Nokia. The incoming Trump administration might amplify this shift for SEP disputes by reinstating the pro-injunction policies of his first Administration. However, only time will tell.
Steve Jedlinski, General Counsel
The UPC taking centre stage
The Unified Patent Court has signalled it has no reservations about granting injunctions for SEPs and last year gave its view of the Huawei v ZTE framework. Panasonic v Oppo provided an indication on the court’s views of FRAND issues, while the appeal decision in the AIM Sport v Supponor case has broadened possibilities for asserting patents which had previously been considered as “pinned” in national proceedings. Given the quick pace of the proceedings, this is highly significant for patent owners. Implementers will need to carefully re-examine their negotiating practices or find themselves in a predicament which has consequences across Europe. However, the possibility of counterclaims for invalidity during the proceedings should give them some comfort, unlike Germany’s bifurcated system. Patent owners should carefully review patent validity in advance of asserting.
The court will increasingly be used as a preferred forum for EU patent enforcement for SEPs. Cost considerations, number of validations in a European patent family, Germany’s bifurcated system, country specific adoption of a particular standard technology and, most importantly, whether cases which have already been “pinned” in national proceedings, are the factors most likely to influence patent owners’ decisions to remain in national systems. The number of decisions related to SEPs and FRAND will grow, and at some point is likely to bubble over with a referral to the CJEU. The European Commission has already urged this, and implementers will probably use every opportunity and tactic to avoid injunctions. Patent owners will need to take care in demonstrating FRAND offers.
Christine Walmsley, Senior IP Legal Counsel
Creative deal structures
The syndicated codec deal Sisvel did with RPX in early 2024 illustrated an important trend in the IP market. I think it showed that there are very interesting opportunities for trusted intermediaries to arrange big, market-clearing deals that attract both patent owners and implementers. Although these are one-off transactions, they play to the strengths of a solution provider like Sisvel because the key challenge is coordinating among a large number of parties with varied interests. This is at the heart of what patent pool operators do.
Looking into 2025, I see increased interest in exactly this kind of creative dealmaking. There are many solutions-oriented people in the industry who want to find common ground to ensure that products using patented technologies have adequate licensing coverage. Sometimes it takes extraordinary creativity to make this happen, and I think the market will continue to surprise us with novel solutions and deal structures.
Jukka Nihtilä, Head of Business Development
Keep an eye on China
The United Kingdom was arguably the centre of gravity for global FRAND jurisprudence in 2024. Closely watched cases that played out in London courtrooms included Lenovo v Ericsson, Panasonic v Xiaomi and Tesla v InterDigital and Avanci. Perhaps most significant was the Court of Appeal ruling in InterDigital v Lenovo, which I wrote about here. China was much quieter. After the December 2023 landmark decision in Nokia v Oppo (analysis here), Chinese courts made relatively little news until the Huawei-Netgear dispute (now settled) produced the country’s first AASI order at the very end of 2024.
But China could figure more prominently in the year ahead. At present, most of the key patent holders have completed their smartphone renewal cycles, which should mean a shift in focus towards automotive and IoT. These are areas in which China remains a key source of unanswered questions. In auto, Avanci’s vehicle programmes are still waiting for a breakthrough in the country. In IoT, China is likewise an important piece of the puzzle for licensing – it’s home to some of the market’s key module manufacturers. In 2024, the stage was set for China to have a greater say in FRAND: there was a SAMR investigation into Avanci, new antimonopoly guidelines for SEPs, and a court case (TCL v Access Advance) dealing with jurisdiction over pool royalty rates. SEP licensing, including by pools, is clearly high on the agenda. That makes this an important market to watch in 2025.
Donald Chan, Head of FRAND & Royalties and 5G Multimode Programme Manager
Spreading the knowledge
Apart from actually joining Sisvel, the undoubted highlight of last year for me was Sisvel Connect Barcelona in November. This brought dozens of patent holders in our various pools together for three days of meetings. They were joined by a wider group of IP market leaders to attend a conference: SEP Licensing and Policy – Now and the Future. We had over 150 delegates in total and they all enjoyed a series of sessions that were notable for the openness with which speakers addressed issues. No doubt the Chatham House rule in force helped with that. There really is nothing like hearing experts from all parts of the ecosystem civilly discuss what can be difficult, controversial subjects while also providing genuine insights and multiple takeaways. I am already looking forward to the next Connect, which will be taking place in October.
Beyond that, I suspect a lot of 2025 for my colleague Jake Schindler and I will be dedicated to communications around policy. We want to make sure that the world knows what Sisvel thinks about the key issues. My hope is that the bad faith arguments that have been creeping into discourse over recent years are less prevalent, though I will not hold my breath on that one. When they do occur and we see them, rest assured we will call them out. We will, of course, also be keeping you up to date with what Sisvel is doing, news from the wider market and the views of various team members on subjects as varied technology, dealmaking and legal decisions, among others. There is so much talent and knowledge at Sisvel. Our job is to share it with you as much as we can.
Joff Wild, Head of Content and Strategic Communications
Another big year ahead
We did some major deals throughout 2024, all of which further confirmed Sisvel’s reputation as an innovative problem solver in the increasingly complex technology world. Agreements with the likes of RPX, Nordic Semiconductor, Acer and Netgear represent the public face of what we do, but we were also involved in several confidential, high-value transactions where we acted as an intermediary to bring companies together to conclude licensing deals which on the face of it looked very unlikely. These too demonstrated our ability to secure significant wins for the organisations we work with on both the buy and sell side. In addition, we strengthened the team with key hires in our legal, business development and communications teams. In the world of policy, we were active in pointing out the many problems with the proposed SEP licensing regulation, while it was also fascinating to watch the UPC’s development as an important forum for the resolution of FRAND/SEP disputes.
I hope and expect this will be another big year for Sisvel. We see exciting opportunities for the pools we already have and are actively exploring the possibility of developing new platforms. There may also be further exciting developments internally – watch this space on that one. We will continue to monitor the progress of the UPC and are very keen to work with the European Commission and EU member states to iron out the flaws in the current iteration of the SEP regulation. Our door is permanently open for dialogue on that front. Whatever happens, you can be sure of one thing: we will remain absolutely committed to fairness, efficiency, transparency and the creation of level playing fields. We will never compromise on these principles.
Mattia Fogliacco, President and CEO
